AfD Reaches Record High in Germany Trend Poll
According to the latest ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has reached a new record high. In the Sunday question, the party improved to 20 percent, making it the second strongest force if federal elections were held today.
The survey also revealed that three-quarters of respondents are concerned about the current state of affairs in Germany. This sentiment is mirrored in their views on the proposed building energy law. As of now, 45 percent of citizens believe that the so-called heating law goes too far, compared to 35 percent who find it appropriate, and 10 percent who think it does not go far enough.
The decision of the Federal Constitutional Court to temporarily halt voting on the heating law came after the survey was conducted. This additional time will allow the coalition government to address detailed questions regarding the law and give the opposition an opportunity to voice criticism during the parliamentary process.
It is evident that significant changes will be necessary in the coming years for Germany to achieve its climate goals. An increasing number of Germans are divided on whether the current pace of action is appropriate. Thirty-three percent believe it is too fast, while 36 percent think it is too slow. Only 20 percent believe that the speed of action is just right.
The question of whether the government should use prohibitions to curb climate-harmful behavior evoked opposing responses. Fifty-six percent of respondents answered „no,“ while 35 percent approved of such measures.
Three-quarters of respondents are concerned about the current situation in Germany. When asked whether the circumstances in Germany give cause for optimism or concern, 77 percent expressed concern, which is eight points lower than in October of last year. In contrast, 18 percent responded with optimism, an increase of seven points since autumn.
For those concerned, the reasons for anxiety vary. Twenty-five percent pointed to the actions of politicians and the government, while 20 percent cited price increases and inflation as a concern. Nineteen percent mentioned climate and energy policies, 18 percent mentioned migration and refugee policies, 16 percent mentioned the Russian war against Ukraine, and 15 percent mentioned the rise of the AfD and the right-wing shift in society.
Supporters of different political parties prioritize different concerns. Green party supporters disproportionately focus on climate protection (33 percent) and the rise of the AfD (40 percent). AfD supporters primarily mention migration (41 percent), whereas Free Democratic Party (FDP) supporters are primarily worried about the economic situation (24 percent).
If federal elections were held on Sunday, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) would receive 18 percent of the votes, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) would receive 28 percent, making it the strongest party. The Green Party would receive 14 percent, the FDP would remain at 7 percent, and the Left Party would remain at 4 percent. Other parties would receive a combined 9 percent.
Satisfaction with the federal government has slightly increased. Currently, 23 percent are very satisfied or satisfied with the work of the coalition government, while 75 percent are either less satisfied or not satisfied at all. However, it is important to note that the majority of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the individual parties within the government. The SPD received the highest satisfaction rate at 30 percent, while 65 percent expressed dissatisfaction. The Green Party received a satisfaction rate of 20 percent, with 77 percent expressing dissatisfaction. The FDP received a satisfaction rate of 22 percent, with 71 percent expressing dissatisfaction.
Since the start of the Ampel coalition government in December 2021, the SPD has seen a slight decline in support, fluctuating between 18 and 20 percent this year, compared to their 25.7 percent result in the 2021 federal elections. The Green Party experienced a peak in the summer of 2022, reaching 23 percent, before declining to their current 14 percent, slightly below their 2021 election result of 14.8 percent. The FDP’s support quickly declined after the start of the government, reaching a low of 6 percent in December 2022. The party failed to secure five percent of the vote in the Berlin state election in February 2023 and has since been working to assert its positions within the coalition government. The party currently stands at 7 percent, below its 2021 election result of 11.5 percent.
The Union party has seen an improvement in its support, rising from 24.1 percent in the 2021 federal elections to the current 28 percent. Meanwhile, the AfD has doubled its support from 10.3 percent in 2021 to its current 20 percent.
The AfD recently took on two positions at the local level, with Robert Sesselmann becoming the first AfD district administrator in Sonneberg, Thuringia, and Hannes Loth, an AfD state politician, being elected as full-time mayor in Raguhn-Jeßnitz, Saxony-Anhalt. Respondents were asked about their views on potential cooperation with the AfD, a party that is partly associated with right-wing extremism. Forty-three percent believe that other parties should generally exclude cooperation with the AfD, a nine percentage point increase compared to October 2017 when the AfD first entered the Bundestag. Thirty-three percent believe that parties should decide on a case-by-case basis, a 13 percentage point decrease since 2017. Seventeen percent are in favor of seeking cooperation with the AfD. A majority of Green Party (83 percent) and SPD (68 percent) supporters categorically reject cooperation with the AfD. Among Union Party supporters, 51 percent are in favor of excluding cooperation, while 37 percent believe decisions should be made on a case-by-case basis, and 7 percent are in favor of seeking cooperation. Forty-five percent of FDP supporters are in favor of generally excluding cooperation, 40 percent believe decisions should be made on a case-by-case basis, and 8 percent are in favor of seeking cooperation. Sixty percent of AfD supporters believe that parties should seek cooperation, while 36 percent believe decisions should be made on a case-by-case basis.
The perception of the AfD has changed over time. In September 2017, before the AfD first entered the Bundestag, 85 percent of eligible voters believed that the party had too many right-wing extremists. This number has since decreased to 69 percent, with 18 percent disagreeing with the statement. A majority of 55 percent believe that while the AfD does not solve problems, it at least names them – a 12 percentage point increase since May 2019. Fifty-three percent believe the AfD has better understood that many people no longer feel safe in Germany than other parties, an 11 percentage point increase since September 2021. Forty-two percent of Germans are in favor of tighter restrictions on the entry of foreigners and refugees,
