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Fear of flooding in Urbach: How secure is our protection really?
Urbach faces the risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall. Jürgen and Petra Jahn fear for their home.
Fear of flooding in Urbach: How secure is our protection really?
Jürgen and Petra Jahn from Urbach live with the constant worry of being confronted with their fears in the event of a flood. She is particularly concerned about the danger that the nearby retention basin will overflow and flood her house. On June 2, 2025, heavy rain over Urbach brought the situation to a boil. During the nighttime rains, Petra Jahn was extremely stressed and moved from window to window to keep an eye on the situation. This concern for one's own home and the uncertainty about future weather events represents a significant burden for many residents.
The current weather conditions and the changed climate conditions require effective flood prevention measures. The BMBF project StucK, which works intensively on improving accurate weather forecasts, plays a central role in this. [hst.de] reports that this project uses an ensemble of radar nowcasts to create ten different forecasts based on variations in the parameters of migration speed, migration direction and intensity. A key feature of this new forecasting method is that it updates every five minutes, making it very important for early warning systems.
Flood forecasting technologies
By combining data from the ICON-D2-EPS model with the radar nowcasts, a comprehensive picture of the upcoming weather situations is created. The warning system for Hamburg has proven to be effective in test operations since summer 2018 and the transition to standard operation in 2019. The improved hit probability remains stable over a period of up to 12 hours, which contributes significantly to the safety of residents.
The methods developed as part of this project can be applied to all locations in Germany and offer an example of innovative technologies in the field of flood protection. The new predictive models are also available for HST's customer catchment areas to further increase local adaptability.
However, despite these technological advances, the feeling of insecurity among citizens remains. The combination of extreme weather events and imperfect flood protection leaves many living in a state of constant alert. Like Jürgen and Petra Jahn, who feel threatened by nature and are constantly on guard. Their story clearly shows that even more sophisticated technologies such as ensemble methodology cannot eliminate all of the population's concerns.
The interaction between reliable warning systems and personal concern for one's own safety is a constantly present topic in many communities, not just in Urbach. The challenge for politics and science will be to counter these fears with effective measures and reliable information.